Playoff odds for GHS spring sports teams

The regular season is just about done for Gloucester’s spring sports teams, which leads to the most anticipated time of the year — the state tournament.

The Gillnetter has broken down the odds of each of our teams regarding the playoffs: are they in, what rank are they, how will the last games affect that rank, and more.

The top 32 teams in each division automatically qualify for the state tournament. Teams below that ranking qualify with a record of .500+. 

SOFTBALL — No. 6, D3 (16-2) | AUTO-QUALIFY

The Fishermen softball squad has been the headliner of Gloucester’s spring sports scene, and the latest MIAA power rankings make it official: they’re comfortably in — and then some.

Sitting at No. 6 in Division 3 with a 16-2 record, Gloucester has long since punched their ticket to the state tournament. The question now isn’t if they get in — it’s how they enter, and how far they go.

Two games remain on the schedule: a matchup with Georgetown, and a closing contest against Winthrop. Neither changes the fundamental picture, but the margin of each game matters more than people might think.

The math is interesting. Gloucester’s current rating sits at 5.6029, and the two-game ceiling — a max-margin win over Georgetown and a five-run victory over Winthrop — pushes that number to roughly 5.84. That’s still not enough to catch Tantasqua Regional at 6.1360, let alone Apponequet at 6.1840. So barring a dramatic collapse from both teams above them, the Fishermen are likely to hold that No. 6 seed entering tournament play.

And that’s fine. No. 6 is a great place to be.

What’s worth paying attention to is the Georgetown game specifically. Georgetown’s opponent rating (6.2377) is strong enough that even a competitive loss against them doesn’t hammer Gloucester’s strength of schedule. A win, especially a decisive one, would meaningfully widen the gap between Gloucester and the teams ranked 7 through 10. The Winthrop game, on the other hand, barely moves the needle — their rating of -0.2492 drags opponent strength more than it helps.

The realistic landing spot after these two games is a rating somewhere in the 5.6 to 5.8 range, and a firm grip on the six seed heading into a tournament bracket that, if the seeds hold, could set up some very familiar matchups. Apponequet, who Gloucester tangled with in the 2024 Sweet 16, is still lurking. And Dighton-Rehoboth — the two-time reigning D3 state champions, who eliminated the Fishermen in an eight-inning Elite Eight battle in 2025 — is still very much in the conversation.

Without factoring in early tournament upsets from Gloucester or their top 10 company, Gloucester would most likely face Norton in the elite 8 — a squad that has basked in regular season and postseason success as of late, but doesn’t have the hardware to show it. In 2024, Dighton-Rehoboth beat Norton in the semi-finals in route to their state championship win. Last season, the #2 Lancers lost in the quarterfinals to a scrappy #10 ranked Greater New Bedford squad — a squad that eventually met the fangs of Dighton-Rehoboth in the championship.

If the Fishermen were to win this quarterfinal scenario over Norton, the squad would most likely face the winner of the Joseph Case vs Greater New Bedford game (again, hypothetically).

But that’s all besides the point.

The Fishermen have the talent to compete with anyone in this field. Their postseason fate won’t be decided by these final two games. It’ll be decided by how ready they are when it matters most.

BASEBALL — No. 10, D3 (17-2) | AUTO-QUALIFY

The Fishermen baseball team has had one of the more dominant seasons of any GHS spring program, and the rankings reflect it — sitting at No. 10 in Division 3 with a 17-2 record, they’ve already clinched automatic tournament qualification with room to spare.

What makes the baseball team’s ranking interesting is the composition of it. Among the top ten in D3, Gloucester carries the lowest opponent average — a 0.5597 — meaning their schedule hasn’t been the toughest on paper. But they also own the third-highest run margin in that same group, which tells you exactly what the Fishermen have been doing to the competition they have faced: they’ve been pounding it.

Both things can be true at once. The margin speaks to a legitimate run-scoring machine and a pitching staff that hasn’t had to fight for wins — it’s been taking them. The question tournament opponents will ask is how that offense responds when the pitching on the other side gets better. That’s what October — sorry, June — answers.

No movement in the top ten is likely from here, but the Fishermen shouldn’t need much. They’re in, they’re seeded well, and they’ve spent this entire regular season building exactly the kind of momentum a team wants heading into the bracket.

BOYS TENNIS — No. 13, D3 (10-5) | AUTO-QUALIFY

Boys tennis is in. A 10-5 record and a No. 13 ranking mean the Fishermen aren’t waiting on anyone — they’ve secured their automatic berth via their over .500 record, and that’s the only math that mattered.

This team has been quietly steady all spring. A 10-5 mark in Division 3 isn’t flashy, but it’s a winning record against a competitive schedule, and it earns you a spot in the field.

There’s no panic here, no last-week scramble. They handled their business.

GIRLS TENNIS — No. 23, D3 (7-8) | LIKELY IN, VIA RANK

Girls tennis is a slightly different story — and it’s worth understanding what that actually means before you sound the alarm.

At 7-8 on the year, the Fishermen haven’t cleared the .500 threshold that would guarantee them a spot via record alone. But sitting at No. 23 in Division 3, they’re well within the top 32, which means automatic qualification still applies. Unless something dramatic happens in the final days of the regular season and teams below them in the rankings make significant moves, this team is going to the state tournament.

At No. 23, the Fishermen will likely face a tough early-round draw, but getting there is step one. They’ve done it.

BOYS LACROSSE — No. 46, D3 (6-8) | OUT

This one stings, and there’s no dressing it up.

Boys lacrosse sits at No. 46 in Division 3 with a 6-8 record — outside the automatic top-32 window, and below the .500 mark that would get them in via record as an at-large qualifier. Mathematically, with the regular season winding down and the gaps in the rankings what they are, there isn’t a realistic path into the state tournament from here. The bracket for boys lacrosse is expected to be released next Wednesday, and barring something extraordinary, the Fishermen won’t be in it.

A 6-8 record against Division 3 competition isn’t the kind of closing argument that moves a team from 46 to somewhere in the 30s in a matter of days. It’s a disappointing end to what this program had hoped to finally be a postseason year.

GIRLS LACROSSE — No. 58, D3 (3-14) | OUT

Girls lacrosse has had a rough spring, and the numbers make it plain: a 3-14 record and a No. 58 ranking in Division 3 puts this team well outside any realistic tournament conversation. There’s no mathematical path from here — the season will end when the regular season does.

It’s been a difficult year, and the Fishermen girls lacrosse program will have a lot to reflect on and build from when the offseason arrives. The bright side is they have a way of fueling the ones that follow. This group has something to prove when they come back.

Brackets for boys and girls tennis and girls lacrosse are expected to be released this Friday. Brackets for baseball, softball, and boys lacrosse are expected to follow next Wednesday.